Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries.

INTRODUCTION: Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2-59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings. METHODS: We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool. RESULTS: A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Assessment of hospitalization costs and its determinants in infants with clinical severe infection at a public tertiary hospital in Nepal.

Sepsis, an important and preventable cause of death in the newborn, is associated with high out of pocket hospitalization costs for the parents/guardians. The government of Nepal's Free Newborn Care (FNC) service that covers hospitalization costs has set a maximum limit of Nepalese rupees (NPR) 8000 i.e. USD 73.5, the basis of which is unclear. We aimed to estimate the costs of treatment in neonates and young infants fulfilling clinical criteria for sepsis, defined as clinical severe infection (CSI) to identify determinants of increased cost. This study assessed costs for treatment of 206 infants 3-59 days old, enrolled in a clinical trial, and admitted to the Kanti Children's Hospital in Nepal through June 2017 to December 2018. Total costs were derived as the sum of direct costs for bed charges, investigations, and medicines and indirect costs calculated by using work time loss of parents. We estimated treatment costs for CSI, the proportion exceeding NPR 8000 and performed multivariable linear regression to identify determinants of high cost. Of the 206 infants, 138 (67%) were neonates (3-28 days). The median (IQR) direct costs for treatment of CSI in neonates and young infants (29-59 days) were USD 111.7 (69.8-155.5) and 65.17 (43.4-98.5) respectively. The direct costs exceeded NPR 8000 (USD 73.5) in 69% of neonates with CSI. Age <29 days, moderate malnutrition, presence of any sign of critical illness and documented treatment failure were found to be important determinants of high costs for treatment of CSI. According to this study, the average treatment cost for a newborn with CSI in a public tertiary level hospital is substantial. The maximum limit offered for free newborn care in public hospitals needs to be revised for better acceptance and successful implementation of the FNC service to avert catastrophic health expenditures in developing countries like Nepal. Trial Registration: CTRI/2017/02/007966 (Registered on: 27/02/2017).

Social determinants and changes in energy drink consumption among adolescents in Norway, 2017-2019: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the social determinants and development in energy drink consumption among Norwegian adolescents in 2017, 2018 and 2019. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, online, annual, nationwide surveys (Ungdata). SETTING: Responses collected online from January 2017 to December 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Lower and upper secondary school students (n=297 102) aged 12-19 years who responded in 2017, 2018 and 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequency of energy drink consumption. RESULTS: Over the 3-year period, 66.4% of the men and 41.8% of the women had consumed energy drink once a week or more. The proportion of female high consumers (consuming energy drink more than four times a week) increased from 3.3% to 4.9% between 2017 and 2019; for male, the increase was from 9.8% to 11.5%. In females, the proportion of high consumers increased with 24% (relative risk; CI) (1.24; 1.09 to 1.41) from 2017 to 2018 and 46% (1.46; 1.31 to 1.62) from 2017 to 2019. The corresponding increases in males were 10% (1.10; 1.01 to 1.20) from 2017 to 2018 and 12% (1.12; 1.05 to 1.19) from 2017 to 2019. Any energy drink consumption as well as high energy drink consumption were independently associated with school level, less central residency, low socioeconomic status, physical inactivity and high leisure screen time. CONCLUSION: We found an increase in high consumers among both boys and girls between 2017 and 2019. The observed increase in energy drink consumption among adolescents can explain some of the increased sales of energy drink in Norway.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health-Related Behaviors in Adolescents Mediate the Association between Subjective Social Status and Body Mass Index.

The aim of this study was to explore the association between adolescent subjective social status (SSS) and body mass index (BMI) at two different time points and to determine whether this association was mediated by health-related behaviors. In 2002 (n = 1596) and 2017 (n = 1534), tenth-grade students (15-16 years old) in schools in the District of Oppland, Norway, completed a survey. Four categories of perceived family economy were measured as SSS, and structural equation modeling was performed, including a latent variable for unhealthy behavior derived from cigarette smoking, snuff-use, and alcohol-drinking as well as dietary and exercise as mediators. No linear association was found between SSS and BMI in 2002 (standardized ß -0.02, (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.07, 0.03)). However, an association was present in 2017 (standardized ß -0.05 (95% CI -0.10, -0.001)), indicating that BMI decreased by 0.05 standard deviations (0.05 × 3.1 = 0.16 BMI unit) for every one-category increase in SSS. This association was mediated by exercise (standardized ß -0.013 (95% CI -0.02, -0.004) and unhealthy behavior (standardized ß -0.009 (95% CI -0.002, -0.04)). In conclusion, a direct association between SSS and BMI was found in 2017 in this repeated cross-sectional survey of 15-16-year-old Norwegian adolescents. This association was mediated through health-related behavior.

Linear Growth between Early and Late Childhood and Cognitive Outcomes at 6-9 Years of Age.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the extent to which linear growth beyond the early years of life determines later cognitive development. STUDY DESIGN: We revisited children from New Delhi, India, who had participated in a randomized controlled trial 6 years before and assessed neurodevelopment using standardized and validated psychometric tools (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, 4th edition; Crichton Vocabulary Scales; and Neuropsychological test battery). The associations of change in height for age z scores between early (12-36 months) and late (6-9 years) childhood with cognitive outcomes at 6-9 years of age were explored using linear regression models, after adjustment for appropriate confounders. RESULTS: Out of the 1000 North Indian children who were enrolled in the original study, 791 consented to participate in this follow-up. Height for age z scores in the first 2 years of life was significantly associated with both the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Crichton Vocabulary Scales (standardized ß coefficient [ß], 0.15; 95% CI, 0.08-0.23), and the Neuropsychological test battery-II z-score (ß, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.03-0.18) at 6-9 years of age. There were no significant associations between change in height for age z scores between early and later childhood and Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Crichton Vocabulary Scales (ß, -0.03; 95% CI, -0.11 to 0.04) or Neuropsychological test battery-II z-scores (ß, -0.04; 95% CI, -0.12 to 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Linear growth between early and late childhood is not associated with later cognitive outcomes. Our findings support the current practice of investing public health efforts to accelerate linear growth in the first 2-3 years of life.

The feasibility of the Ages and Stages Questionnaire for the assessment of child development in a community setting in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: The Ages and Stages Questionnaire Third Edition (ASQ-3) may be a feasible and cost-effective tool to screen children's development in resource poor settings. We have assessed the feasibility of the ASQ-3 "home procedure" when conducted by fieldworkers in a community-based nutritional interventional trial on early child development in Nepal. METHOD: Six hundred children aged 6-11 months at risk of stunting were assessed by trained fieldworkers in their homes by the ASQ-3. Three fieldworkers performed standardization exercises and were double scored with a gold standard during the study period. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were calculated to measure the interrater agreement. The internal consistency was expressed by standardized Cronbach's alphas. The association between total ASQ score and gestation, low birth weight, and stunted children is presented to give an estimate of the construct validity of the tool. RESULT: Mean scores of the 600 Nepalese children were consistently lower than in the American norm sample. The ICCs from the standardization exercises were initially good to excellent but declined throughout the study period. The standardized alphas for the total score in the different age groups indicate good internal consistency but varied in the subscales. Children who were preterm, children with low birth weight, and children who were stunted scored substantially lower on the total ASQ score than those who were not. CONCLUSION: Although the ASQ-3 "home procedure" is low at cost and easily accessible in a Nepalese context, the tool requires rigorous and stringent training to achieve acceptable interrater agreement. Further adjustment is required to achieve satisfactory internal consistency.

Determinants of Cognitive Development in the Early Life of Children in Bhaktapur, Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Children in low and middle income countries may have many risk factors for poor cognitive development, and are accordingly at a high risk of not reaching their developmental potential. Determinants for cognitive development in early life can be found among biological and socioeconomic factors, as well as in stimulation and learning opportunities. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to identify determinants of cognitive, language and motor development in 6-11 months old Nepalese infants. METHODS: Six hundred infants with a length-for-age z-score <-1 were assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler development, 3rd edition (Bayley-III). Information on socioeconomic factors, child and maternal demographics, clinical and biological factors, and the home environment were collected. In a manual stepwise variable selection procedure, we examined the association between selected biological, socioeconomic and stimulation and learning opportunity variables and the Bayley-III cognitive, language and motor development subscale scores in multiple linear regression models. RESULTS: The length-for-age z-scores was positively associated with the cognitive composite score [standardized beta (ß): 0.22, p < 0.001] and the motor composite score [(ß): 0.14, p = 0.001]. Children born with low birth weight (<2500 g) scored significantly lower on all subscale scores. Diarrheal history was associated with poor language composite scores, and females had higher language composite scores than boys [(ß): 0.11, p = 0.015]. Children who had been hospitalized during the first month of life had also lower cognitive and motor composite scores than those who had not been hospitalized. Parental reports of physical punishment and lack of spontaneous vocalization were associated with poor cognitive and language composite scores, respectively. The statistical models with the various subscale scores as dependent variables explained between 8 to 16 percent of the variability in the cognitive developmental outcomes. CONCLUSION: Our findings reveal important determinants for developmental scores in infancy, and underline the role of biological risk factors faced by marginalized children in low and middle income countries such as in Nepal.

Gender differences in infant survival: a secondary data analysis in rural North India.

OBJECTIVE: To examine gender differences in infant survival on the first day of life, in the first week of life, and in the neonatal and post-neonatal periods by socio-demographic and economic variables. DESIGN: Secondary data analysis was performed on data from a cluster randomised trial on the effect of implementation of the Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illness programme, India. SETTINGS: The study setting was Palwal and Faridabad, districts of Haryana, a state in North India. MEASURES: Multiple logistic regression models taking the cluster design into account were used to estimate gender differences in mortality in different periods of infancy. RESULTS: A total of 60 480 infants were included in these analyses. Of 4060 infant deaths, 2054 were female (7.2% of all females born) and 2006 were male (6.3% of all males born). The death rate was significantly higher in females in the post-neonatal period but not during the neonatal period. The odds of death at 29-180 days and at 181-365 days were 1.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.6) and 1.7 (95% CI: 1.4 to 2.0) higher in females compared with males, respectively. This increase was seen across all socio-demographic and economic strata. CONCLUSION: Gender differences during the post-neonatal period are a major threat to the survival and health of female infants in India. Programmes need to identify measures that can specifically reduce female mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical trials NCT00474981.

The assessment of developmental status using the Ages and Stages questionnaire-3 in nutritional research in north Indian young children.

OBJECTIVE AND BACKGROUND: For large epidemiological studies in low and middle-income countries, inexpensive and easily administered developmental assessment tools are called for. This report evaluates the feasibility of the assessment tool Ages and Stages Questionnaire 3.edition (ASQ-3) "home procedure" in a field trial in 422 North Indian young children. METHODS: ASQ-3 was translated and adjusted for a North Indian Hindi setting. Three examiners were trained by a clinical psychologist to perform the assessments. During the main study, ten % of the assessments were done by two examiners to estimate inter-observer agreement. During all sessions, the examiners recorded whether the scoring was based on observation of the skill during the session, or on caregiver's report of the child's skill. Intra class correlation coefficient was calculated to estimate the agreement between the raters and between the raters and a gold standard. Pearson product moment correlation coefficient and standardized alphas were calculated to measure internal consistency. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Inter-observer agreement was strong both during training exercises and during the main study. In the Motor subscales and the Problem Solving subscale most items could be observed during the session. The standardized alphas for the total ASQ-3 scale across all ages were strong, while the alpha values for the different subscales and age levels varied. The correlations between the total score and the subscale scores were consistently strong, while the correlations between subscale scores were moderate. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found that the translated and adjusted ASQ-3 "home procedure" was a feasible procedure for the collection of reliable data on the developmental status in infants and young children. Examiners were effectively trained over a short period of time, and the total ASQ scores showed adequate variability. However, further adjustments are needed to obtain satisfying alpha values in all subscales, and to ensure variability in all items when transferred to a North Indian cultural context.

Data quality and practical challenges of thyroid volume assessment by ultrasound under field conditions - observer errors may affect prevalence estimates of goitre.

BACKGROUND: The ultrasonographic estimation of thyroid size has been advocated as being more precise than palpation to diagnose goitre. However, ultrasound also requires technical proficiency. This study was conducted among Saharawi refugees, where goitre is highly prevalent. The objectives were to assess the overall data quality of ultrasound measurements of thyroid volume (Tvol), including the intra- and inter-observer agreement, under field conditions, and to describe some of the practical challenges encountered. METHODS: In 2007 a cross-sectional study of 419 children (6-14 years old) and 405 women (15-45 years old) was performed on a population of Saharawi refugees with prevalent goitre, who reside in the Algerian desert. Tvol was measured by two trained fieldworkers using portable ultrasound equipment (examiner 1 measured 406 individuals, and examiner 2, 418 individuals). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was estimated in 12 children selected from the study population but not part of the main study. In the main study, an observer error was found in one examiner whose ultrasound images were corrected by linear regression after printing and remeasuring a sample of 272 images. RESULTS: The intra-observer agreement in Tvol was higher in examiner 1, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.97 (95% CI: 0.91, 0.99) compared to 0.86 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.96) in examiner 2. The ICC for inter-observer agreement in Tvol was 0.38 (95% CI: -0.20, 0.77). Linear regression coefficients indicated a significant scaling bias in the original measurements of the AP and ML diameter and a systematic underestimation of Tvol (a product of AP, ML, CC and a constant). The agreement between re-measured and original Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.76 (0.71, 0.81). The agreement between re-measured and corrected Tvol measured by ICC (95% CI) was 0.97 (0.96, 0.97). CONCLUSIONS: An important challenge when using ultrasound to assess thyroid volume under field conditions is to recruit and train qualified personnel to perform the measurements. Methodological studies are important to assess data quality and can facilitate statistical corrections and improved estimates.